Sector
Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
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Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
In terms of exports, Indonesia’s top export commodity has historically been mineral-based fuels, especially coal. However, in the global market, Indonesia is a superpower in the exports of vegetable oils, particularly palm oil, having captured roughly 20 percent of the market with a total export value of US$35.2 billion in 2022. Behind that, Indonesia also leads in nickel exports, with a total export value reaching US$5.8 trillion or 14 percent of global exports.
In 2023, China emerged as Indonesia’s top partner for both exports and imports, with a total annual value of US$62.3 billion and US$62.2 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, the nation’s next top export destination is the US, with a total annual value of US$ 23.2 billion, while the next top import country of origin is Japan, with a total annual value of US$ 16.4 billion.
For trades on the level of individual consumers, the main driver of growth has been the rise in e-commerce throughout the past few years. E-commerce gross market value (GMV) grew by 20 percent from US$48 billion in 2021 to US$58 billion in 2022. This growth persisted to 2023, as e-commerce GMV grew by 7 percent to US$62 billion. E-commerce grew rapidly as it provided a means for Indonesian consumers to maintain access to goods and services during the pandemic period of 2020-2022. However, by the time the pandemic ended, e-commerce had grown ubiquitous and became a staple in the day-to-day lives of the average Indonesian.
Meanwhile, the domestic retail sector in Indonesia is driven by the sale of automotives. The retail of automotives alone in the country reached a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$174.35 billion in 2023, contributing to roughly 13.53 percent of Indonesia’s total GDP of US$1.3 trillion for that year at current market prices. Moreover, the country also achieved a per capita GDP of US$ 4,919.
Strong trade growth followed by increasing access to goods has bolstered local consumer confidence in Indonesia despite the period of uncertainty throughout 2023. According to Bank Indonesia’s monthly consumer confidence survey, Indonesians entered 2024 with high confidence, with the confidence index rising from 123.8 in December 2023 to 125.0 in January 2024. Moreover, this increase is even higher compared to same period the previous year, as a consumer confidence index of 123.0 was recorded for January 2023.
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Danantara Indonesia has announced plans to consolidate 15 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and their logistics arms into a single “super” logistics entity in an effort to address longstanding structural issues in Indonesia’s state-owned logistics sector. The consolidation spans multiple segments, from railway distribution to fertilizer distribution, and combines both profitable and loss-making firms under the ambition of building a more integrated and efficient national logistics backbone.
According to the plan, the consolidation includes Pupuk Indonesia Logistik and Semen Indonesia Logistik, both of which recorded significant losses in their recent financial reports. Pupuk Indonesia Logistik posted losses of Rp 90.52 billion (US5.24 million) in 2024, while Semen Indonesia Logistik reported losses of Rp 30.29 billion in the same year, which then widened to Rp 188.35 billion in 2025.
This financial strain is closely tied to policy mandates imposed on these firms. In the case of Pupuk Indonesia and its logistics arm, subsidized fertilizer is sold at government-set prices that remain far below market rates, even as the cost of imported raw materials such as phosphate rock and diammonium phosphate, along with other feedstocks, has risen in recent years. Prices initially surged during the pandemic and increased again amid conflict in the Middle East. This persistent mismatch between controlled selling prices and rising production and distribution costs, compounded by the large volumes required under Indonesia’s subsidy program, has continued to pressure margins across the fertilizer supply chain.
A similar pattern can be seen at Semen Indonesia and its logistics subsidiary, which have played a major role in supporting large-scale infrastructure development, particularly projects classified under the government’s National Strategic Projects (PSN) program introduced during the administration of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. While these projects have generated demand for cement and logistics services, many have operated under thin margins or even losses due to pricing pressures and execution constraints. As a result, participation in these state-driven initiatives has not always translated into financial sustainability, contributing to the broader pattern of losses across construction and logistics SOEs.
On the other end of the spectrum, several profitable logistics SOEs are expected to help offset weaker entities under the consolidation scheme. These include Pos Indonesia, which will serve as the holding company for the new logistics entity, alongside Pelindo Terminal Petikemas, ASDP Indonesia Ferry, Pelni, KAI Logistik and Integrasi Logistik Cipta Solusi. All of these companies have recorded consistent profits since at least 2023.
However, this profitability is not necessarily the result of stronger operational efficiency or healthy market competition. While struggling SOEs face rigid policies that suppress margins through subsidized pricing schemes or participation in low-margin national projects, stronger-performing firms benefit from regulatory structures that grant them protected, and often exclusive, access to lucrative market segments.
Take Pos Indonesia as an example. Despite losing market share in the consumer parcel business to on-demand delivery services such as J&T Express and Shopee Express, its profitability remains supported by regulatory advantages. As the state postal operator, Pos Indonesia retains exclusive access to government social assistance distribution programs such as the Family Hope Program (PKH) and staple food packages (Sembako) in remote regions, handles official state documents and passport deliveries, and operates the country’s only nationwide postal financial network through PosPay under a universal service obligation mandate.
Similarly, Pelindo Terminal Petikemas functions as the dominant container terminal operator across major Indonesian ports following the 2021 merger of Pelindo. Its profitability is supported by regulations that consolidate container handling operations under its network, leaving shippers with limited alternatives.
The same dynamic applies to ASDP Indonesia Ferry, which maintains a statutory monopoly over most roll-on/roll-off ferry routes connecting Sumatra, Java, Bali and other major islands. Private operators cannot enter these strategic routes without government approval, making ASDP’s profitability heavily reliant on regulatory protection.
The remaining seven logistics SOEs involved in the consolidation have not publicly disclosed their financial statements. They include Pelindo Solusi Logistik, Garuda Indonesia Logistik, Varuna Tirta Prakasya, Djakarta Lloyd, BGR Logistik Indonesia, Angkasa Pura Kargo and Aerojasa Cargo.
Unless the government addresses the dependence of some SOEs on policy protection to remain profitable, while easing the pricing pressures that continue to burden struggling firms, the merger risks becoming a bailout mechanism that masks inefficiencies rather than resolving them.
