Sector
Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
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Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
In terms of exports, Indonesia’s top export commodity has historically been mineral-based fuels, especially coal. However, in the global market, Indonesia is a superpower in the exports of vegetable oils, particularly palm oil, having captured roughly 20 percent of the market with a total export value of US$35.2 billion in 2022. Behind that, Indonesia also leads in nickel exports, with a total export value reaching US$5.8 trillion or 14 percent of global exports.
In 2023, China emerged as Indonesia’s top partner for both exports and imports, with a total annual value of US$62.3 billion and US$62.2 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, the nation’s next top export destination is the US, with a total annual value of US$ 23.2 billion, while the next top import country of origin is Japan, with a total annual value of US$ 16.4 billion.
For trades on the level of individual consumers, the main driver of growth has been the rise in e-commerce throughout the past few years. E-commerce gross market value (GMV) grew by 20 percent from US$48 billion in 2021 to US$58 billion in 2022. This growth persisted to 2023, as e-commerce GMV grew by 7 percent to US$62 billion. E-commerce grew rapidly as it provided a means for Indonesian consumers to maintain access to goods and services during the pandemic period of 2020-2022. However, by the time the pandemic ended, e-commerce had grown ubiquitous and became a staple in the day-to-day lives of the average Indonesian.
Meanwhile, the domestic retail sector in Indonesia is driven by the sale of automotives. The retail of automotives alone in the country reached a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$174.35 billion in 2023, contributing to roughly 13.53 percent of Indonesia’s total GDP of US$1.3 trillion for that year at current market prices. Moreover, the country also achieved a per capita GDP of US$ 4,919.
Strong trade growth followed by increasing access to goods has bolstered local consumer confidence in Indonesia despite the period of uncertainty throughout 2023. According to Bank Indonesia’s monthly consumer confidence survey, Indonesians entered 2024 with high confidence, with the confidence index rising from 123.8 in December 2023 to 125.0 in January 2024. Moreover, this increase is even higher compared to same period the previous year, as a consumer confidence index of 123.0 was recorded for January 2023.
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Former president Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is struggling to maintain his political clout in Indonesia. The prolonged controversy surrounding his academic certificate has eroded his credibility, while his clan, once expected to carry on his political legacy, has sought every path to establish meaningful influence. Instead, many of Jokowi's close allies have become entangled in legal troubles, and his sway within President Prabowo Subianto's administration is steadily fading.
The Jakarta Police recently scheduled questioning for three suspects, Roy Suryo, Rismon Hasiholan Sianipar and Tifauziah Tyassuma, in the defamation case related to allegations of Jokowi's forged diploma. In total, eight individuals have been charged under accusations of defamation, incitement and slander.
Mahfud MD, Jokowi's former Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister, stated that the court should not convict Roy and company before first determining the authenticity of Jokowi's diploma.
Meanwhile, Jokowi's eldest son, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, once seen as his political heir, has seen his role diminish. His influence within the cabinet has been explicitly curtailed by President Prabowo, who prefers instead to rely on figures from his Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party and the Indonesian Military (TNI).
Similarly, the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), led by Jokowi's youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, has yet to clarify Jokowi's formal role despite rumors that he would chair its advisory board. The relationship between PSI and Jokowi has shown little sign of mutual benefit, particularly since the party holds no seats in the House of Representatives.
Jokowi's son-in-law, North Sumatra Governor Bobby Nasution, also faces legal troubles. He has been linked to a corruption case involving his close ally, Topan Obaja Putra Ginting, the head of the province's Public Works and Housing Agency.
The case drew further attention after the house of Judge Khamozaro Waruwu, who presides over the corruption trial, caught fire on Nov. 4, destroying crucial documents and valuables.
From the debris, Tempo reportedly found remnants resembling court documents and a business card belonging to a retired official from the Public Works Ministry and an expert witness at the National Public Procurement Agency (LKPP), identified by the initials RH.
Topan was arrested by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) in Medan on June 28 for allegedly receiving a promised fee of Rp 8 billion (US$478,271) from a private contractor that won a Rp 231.8 billion road construction project in North Sumatra.
The KPK is awaiting the outcome of the Medan Corruption Court's trial before summoning Bobby for questioning. Prosecutors will submit their report to the KPK once the verdicts against the five defendants in the case become legally binding.
This is not the only legal issue shadowing Bobby. He was previously implicated in an alleged nickel smuggling scheme to China involving 5.3 million tonnes of ore, which reportedly caused state losses amounting to hundreds of trillions of rupiah. Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto was also named in the same case.
In 2024, Bobby's name surfaced in connection with a bribery and gratuity case connected to former North Maluku governor Abdul Gani Kasuba, who died in March of this year.
Jokowi's weakening influence extends beyond his family. ProJo, the volunteer organization that once stood as his strongest political support base, is now at a crossroads.
After speculation that it might evolve into a political party, ProJo chairman Budi Arie Setiadi, who served as Cooperative Minister in the Prabowo government for less than 11 months, has seen his political standing wane. His attempt to join Gerindra was rejected by several regional party branches, including the Surakarta chapter, a key base of Jokowi's support.
They argued that Budi Arie was merely seeking political protection from an online gambling scandal during his tenure at the Communication and Informatics Ministry in the final year of Jokowi's presidency.
Local Gerindra representatives also objected, fearing his entry could disrupt the party's established structure. Some political observers claim that Budi Arie's move was orchestrated by Jokowi himself.
Following Budi Arie's dismissal in September, several figures closely associated with Jokowi's administration were gradually dropped from Prabowo's government lineup, including Sri Mulyani, Dito Ariotedjo and Budi Gunawan.
Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, once Jokowi's most trusted aide with extensive authority, has been relegated to a largely ceremonial role at the powerless National Economic Council.
The remnants of Jokowi's influence now lie mainly in the police and military leadership, whose terms will extend until their eventual retirement.
Meanwhile, many of Jokowi's flagship initiatives that were expected to be continued under President Prabowo have either been scaled back or left uncertain. The Nusantara Capital City project has seen significant budget cuts and unclear timelines, while the Jakarta–Bandung high-speed rail project faces potential legal issues and is increasingly viewed as a financial burden on the state.
A year after stepping down, Jokowi finds it difficult to remain relevant as his political legacies are being dismantled by legal issues or political competition.
