Sector
Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
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Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
In terms of exports, Indonesia’s top export commodity has historically been mineral-based fuels, especially coal. However, in the global market, Indonesia is a superpower in the exports of vegetable oils, particularly palm oil, having captured roughly 20 percent of the market with a total export value of US$35.2 billion in 2022. Behind that, Indonesia also leads in nickel exports, with a total export value reaching US$5.8 trillion or 14 percent of global exports.
In 2023, China emerged as Indonesia’s top partner for both exports and imports, with a total annual value of US$62.3 billion and US$62.2 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, the nation’s next top export destination is the US, with a total annual value of US$ 23.2 billion, while the next top import country of origin is Japan, with a total annual value of US$ 16.4 billion.
For trades on the level of individual consumers, the main driver of growth has been the rise in e-commerce throughout the past few years. E-commerce gross market value (GMV) grew by 20 percent from US$48 billion in 2021 to US$58 billion in 2022. This growth persisted to 2023, as e-commerce GMV grew by 7 percent to US$62 billion. E-commerce grew rapidly as it provided a means for Indonesian consumers to maintain access to goods and services during the pandemic period of 2020-2022. However, by the time the pandemic ended, e-commerce had grown ubiquitous and became a staple in the day-to-day lives of the average Indonesian.
Meanwhile, the domestic retail sector in Indonesia is driven by the sale of automotives. The retail of automotives alone in the country reached a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$174.35 billion in 2023, contributing to roughly 13.53 percent of Indonesia’s total GDP of US$1.3 trillion for that year at current market prices. Moreover, the country also achieved a per capita GDP of US$ 4,919.
Strong trade growth followed by increasing access to goods has bolstered local consumer confidence in Indonesia despite the period of uncertainty throughout 2023. According to Bank Indonesia’s monthly consumer confidence survey, Indonesians entered 2024 with high confidence, with the confidence index rising from 123.8 in December 2023 to 125.0 in January 2024. Moreover, this increase is even higher compared to same period the previous year, as a consumer confidence index of 123.0 was recorded for January 2023.
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The recent deactivation of millions of National Health Insurance (JKN) contribution assistance recipients (PBI) has been revealed as more than a mere data-cleaning exercise. It has exposed a systemic failure to recognize the vulnerability of the poor, for whom subsidized health care is a necessity, not an option. This episode underscores persistent flaws in the design and execution of Indonesia’s health protection framework.
Under Social Affairs Ministerial Decree No. 3/2026, approximately 11 million PBI participants were deactivated on Feb. 1. The PBI remains the largest segment of the JKN system; as of Dec. 31, 2025, total participation reached 282.7 million, with 40.2 percent receiving subsidies. Given its scale, this cohort is a fiscal pillar of Indonesia’s health financing, funded through both state (APBN) and regional (APBD) budgets.
The deactivation occurred because these individuals were missing from the National Integrated Socioeconomic Data (DTSEN) and were thus deemed ineligible. The DTSEN is the government’s new central welfare database, replacing the Integrated Social Welfare Data (DTKS) following 2025 instructions from Social Affairs Minister Saifullah Yusuf.
Nearly a year into this transition, the reform has left many citizens blindsided. Media reports highlight patients discovering their coverage had been terminated only while seeking treatment. The most acute disruptions affected those requiring continuous, life-sustaining care, such as dialysis patients whose treatments are strictly time-bound.
Tony Richard Samosir, chairperson of the Indonesia Dialysis Patient Community (KPCDI), said that the vast majority of dialysis patients whose PBI status was deactivated received no prior notification. He characterized this sudden termination of coverage as inhumane and a violation of fundamental human rights.
Policy-wise, the overhaul aims to ensure limited subsidies reach those most in need. The government maintains a fixed quota of 96.8 million PBI beneficiaries, targeting the poorest five deciles. Thus, removals are designed to create fiscal space for newly eligible recipients.
Yet, ground realities reveal the social cost of this administrative rationalization. Following a public backlash, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) accelerated the verification of the 11 million deactivated participants. Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin also announced that coverage for patients with "catastrophic" illnesses would be automatically reactivated for three months. Of those removed, roughly 120,000 suffered from such conditions.
Even so, quota constraints and narrow exemptions risk new exclusion errors. Vulnerable citizens falling outside catastrophic classifications may still lose access despite ongoing needs. Clinical vulnerability does not always trigger administrative protection, exposing gaps between welfare metrics and real-time health dependency.
To mitigate the fallout, the government has opened reactivation pathways through local offices and encouraged enrollment as independent Class III participants. These monthly contributions are set at Rp 42,000 (US$2.48), with a Rp 7,000 subsidy leaving individuals to pay Rp 35,000. While this offers a buffer, it shifts the financial burden onto low-income households, raising concerns over affordability and continuity of care.
Compounding the problem, the universal health scheme has operated in deficit from its start, partly because many independent participants fail to pay the subsidized premiums. BPJS Watch Advocacy estimates the number of independent Class III participants in arrears exceeded 15 million in 2025.
If the government decides to raise the premiums, more people will inevitably fall into arrears and lose access to JKN services altogether.
