Sector
Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
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Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
In terms of exports, Indonesia’s top export commodity has historically been mineral-based fuels, especially coal. However, in the global market, Indonesia is a superpower in the exports of vegetable oils, particularly palm oil, having captured roughly 20 percent of the market with a total export value of US$35.2 billion in 2022. Behind that, Indonesia also leads in nickel exports, with a total export value reaching US$5.8 trillion or 14 percent of global exports.
In 2023, China emerged as Indonesia’s top partner for both exports and imports, with a total annual value of US$62.3 billion and US$62.2 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, the nation’s next top export destination is the US, with a total annual value of US$ 23.2 billion, while the next top import country of origin is Japan, with a total annual value of US$ 16.4 billion.
For trades on the level of individual consumers, the main driver of growth has been the rise in e-commerce throughout the past few years. E-commerce gross market value (GMV) grew by 20 percent from US$48 billion in 2021 to US$58 billion in 2022. This growth persisted to 2023, as e-commerce GMV grew by 7 percent to US$62 billion. E-commerce grew rapidly as it provided a means for Indonesian consumers to maintain access to goods and services during the pandemic period of 2020-2022. However, by the time the pandemic ended, e-commerce had grown ubiquitous and became a staple in the day-to-day lives of the average Indonesian.
Meanwhile, the domestic retail sector in Indonesia is driven by the sale of automotives. The retail of automotives alone in the country reached a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$174.35 billion in 2023, contributing to roughly 13.53 percent of Indonesia’s total GDP of US$1.3 trillion for that year at current market prices. Moreover, the country also achieved a per capita GDP of US$ 4,919.
Strong trade growth followed by increasing access to goods has bolstered local consumer confidence in Indonesia despite the period of uncertainty throughout 2023. According to Bank Indonesia’s monthly consumer confidence survey, Indonesians entered 2024 with high confidence, with the confidence index rising from 123.8 in December 2023 to 125.0 in January 2024. Moreover, this increase is even higher compared to same period the previous year, as a consumer confidence index of 123.0 was recorded for January 2023.
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Special climate and energy envoy Hashim Djojohadikusumo, President Prabowo Subianto’s younger brother, has revealed a proposal to distribute free smartphones to social assistance (Bansos) recipients, but Coordinating Economy Minister Airlangga Hartarto has denied its existence. The conflicting statements have raised questions about how the initiative came to be announced, particularly as the government pursues a separate program to open bank accounts for 200 million people.
Hashim announced the free smartphone plan on Oct. 13, presenting it as a way to help Bansos recipients access digital banking services and receive government transfers. He linked the proposal to the government’s broader financial inclusion agenda, suggesting that smartphones would bridge the gap between opening bank accounts and enabling recipients to use them.
Following the announcement, Airlangga clarified that the government’s current plan involved opening bank accounts for up to 200 million people, with an initial deposit of Rp 50,000 (US$2.76) per account.
The rollout is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by a budget of around Rp 3.8 trillion. The program will be implemented through state-owned lenders Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) and Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI).
Airlangga’s denial leaves the status of the free smartphone proposal unclear and raises questions about whether it was properly coordinated with the government’s existing plans.
Hashim’s proposal initially seemed plausible because it addressed a practical challenge left unanswered by the mass account opening program: how recipients would access and use their new accounts. Providing smartphones alongside bank accounts could give recipients a direct channel for managing their finances and receiving social assistance, potentially reducing their reliance on intermediaries.
This apparent synergy, however, does not necessarily mean that distributing devices is the most effective or economical way to achieve financial inclusion.
Bundling smartphones and mobile data plans or phone credit with social assistance would introduce substantial logistical and financial costs. Large-scale distribution would require additional procurement, delivery and maintenance arrangements. Meanwhile, ensuring that recipients used the devices for their intended purpose would be difficult.
Compared with providing cash or enabling access through existing devices and banking channels, the proposal could impose significant additional costs without guaranteeing better outcomes.
There is also a risk that recipients could pawn or resell the phones to meet more immediate financial needs, undermining the program’s intended benefits. Similarly, phone numbers distributed alongside the devices could be transferred or sold to third parties.
These possibilities raise a broader question: whether providing hardware is necessary to expand digital access, particularly when the government could instead focus on ensuring that recipients can use existing devices to access banking services securely.
The risks extend beyond the devices’ potential resale. Mobile phone numbers have become valuable gateways to financial accounts and digital services, as they are widely used for identity verification and account registration. Distributing SIM cards or registered phone numbers on a large scale could therefore create opportunities for misuse, including the transfer of registered numbers to third parties or their exploitation in fraudulent activities.
This concern is particularly relevant to Indonesia’s efforts to combat online gambling, which is illegal along with all forms of gambling. Operators have circumvented restrictions by exploiting bank accounts and phone numbers registered under third-party identities.
A large-scale distribution program could expand the pool of accounts and numbers available for resale or misuse, potentially making enforcement more difficult. Without adequate safeguards, an initiative intended to promote financial inclusion could inadvertently create new vulnerabilities in the digital financial system.
Ultimately, both the mass account opening program and the free smartphone proposal reflect the government’s focus on populist policies. But the recent mix-up further amplifies concerns about policy coordination and consideration of potential risks and impacts.
The episode also invites scrutiny of the political motivations behind the government’s increasingly ambitious promises, particularly amid concerns over public approval ratings. If the administration is seeking to rebuild public support through programs that offer immediate, visible benefits, it risks political urgency taking precedence over planning.
