Sector
Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
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Trading
Indonesia, a developing country rich in natural resources and boasting the 4th largest population in the world, maintains an extensive trade presence. In 2023, the national trade balance reached US$480.7 billion, having grown significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, when it stood at US$338.96 billion. Moreover, as of March 2024, the country has officially recorded a trade balance surplus for its 47th consecutive month.
In terms of exports, Indonesia’s top export commodity has historically been mineral-based fuels, especially coal. However, in the global market, Indonesia is a superpower in the exports of vegetable oils, particularly palm oil, having captured roughly 20 percent of the market with a total export value of US$35.2 billion in 2022. Behind that, Indonesia also leads in nickel exports, with a total export value reaching US$5.8 trillion or 14 percent of global exports.
In 2023, China emerged as Indonesia’s top partner for both exports and imports, with a total annual value of US$62.3 billion and US$62.2 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, the nation’s next top export destination is the US, with a total annual value of US$ 23.2 billion, while the next top import country of origin is Japan, with a total annual value of US$ 16.4 billion.
For trades on the level of individual consumers, the main driver of growth has been the rise in e-commerce throughout the past few years. E-commerce gross market value (GMV) grew by 20 percent from US$48 billion in 2021 to US$58 billion in 2022. This growth persisted to 2023, as e-commerce GMV grew by 7 percent to US$62 billion. E-commerce grew rapidly as it provided a means for Indonesian consumers to maintain access to goods and services during the pandemic period of 2020-2022. However, by the time the pandemic ended, e-commerce had grown ubiquitous and became a staple in the day-to-day lives of the average Indonesian.
Meanwhile, the domestic retail sector in Indonesia is driven by the sale of automotives. The retail of automotives alone in the country reached a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$174.35 billion in 2023, contributing to roughly 13.53 percent of Indonesia’s total GDP of US$1.3 trillion for that year at current market prices. Moreover, the country also achieved a per capita GDP of US$ 4,919.
Strong trade growth followed by increasing access to goods has bolstered local consumer confidence in Indonesia despite the period of uncertainty throughout 2023. According to Bank Indonesia’s monthly consumer confidence survey, Indonesians entered 2024 with high confidence, with the confidence index rising from 123.8 in December 2023 to 125.0 in January 2024. Moreover, this increase is even higher compared to same period the previous year, as a consumer confidence index of 123.0 was recorded for January 2023.
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Beef retailers have gone on strike in protest over the rising price of live cattle set by feedlot operators. While the increase is partly attributed to supply losses caused by flooding in Australia, Indonesia’s largest source of imported cattle, the Agriculture Ministry suspects foul play among feedlot operators, alleging that they are maintaining elevated prices to secure higher margins. This comes as the government earlier this month slashed the private sector’s beef import quota from 180,000 tonnes last year to just 30,000 tonnes.
Price data point to sustained pressures along the supply chain. The average national price of live cattle at the feedlot level stood at Rp 52,941 (US$3.14) per kilogram on Jan. 28, according to National Food Agency (Bapanas) data, below the government reference price of Rp 56,000–58,000 per kg. However, at the consumer level, the average national price of hindquarter beef reached Rp 136,720 per kg, approaching the government reference price of Rp 140,000 per kg, suggesting that price pressures remain downstream.
Traders in traditional markets said their purchase price from slaughterhouses had risen sharply, from around Rp 85,000–Rp 90,000 per kg previously to about Rp 110,000 per kg. Several traders said this had pushed their cost of goods sold to roughly Rp 125,000 per kg, forcing them to sell beef at around Rp 130,000 per kg over the past month. As a result, daily sales volumes have fallen significantly, with some traders reporting a drop from around 10 kg per day to just 3 kg.
Against this backdrop, traders and slaughterhouse operators in Greater Jakarta went on strike on Jan. 22–24, after negotiations on live cattle price stability with the Agriculture Ministry and other agencies on Jan. 5 failed to yield a solution. After the strike, the Agriculture Ministry, Bapanas and several associations reached an agreement to keep the benchmark purchase price of live cattle at the feedlot level at Rp 55,000 per kg to stabilize prices and ensure supply ahead of Ramadan and Idul Fitri 2026.
Several importers said they were already under pressure when the benchmark price had been set at Rp 58,000 per kg, as that price had been factored into their procurement plans to secure Australian cattle ahead of the peak Ramadan sales period. With the maximum benchmark price now lowered to Rp 55,000 per kg, they said the margin has become extremely thin, as the price is now close to their actual cost of sourcing cattle from Australia.
Amid mounting scrutiny, the Agriculture Ministry has formed a special task force to investigate alleged price speculation in the Greater Jakarta area. The ministry has warned that it could revoke business or import permits and pursue criminal charges against parties found to be manipulating prices.
The Jakarta provincial administration, however, offered a different assessment, saying it had found no evidence of supply shortages in the capital. Instead, it pointed to rising import costs, noting that the price of live cattle from Australia had increased from Rp 53,000 per kg in November 2025 to Rp 61,000 per kg. The increase had been attributed to rupiah exchange rate fluctuations and tighter supply from Australia, where cattle losses in Queensland reportedly exceeded 100,000 head following Tropical Cyclone Koji. Australia remains Indonesia’s dominant supplier, with beef imports reaching 113,622.94 tonnes in 2024, the highest among all origin countries, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS).
The impact of higher import costs has been compounded by policy changes. Under the government’s 2026 import policy, the private sector’s beef quota was cut sharply from 180,000 tonnes to just 30,000 tonnes. By contrast, state-owned enterprises received a combined quota of 250,000 tonnes for beef and buffalo meat imports, consisting of 100,000 tonnes of buffalo meat from India, 75,000 tonnes of beef from Brazil, and 75,000 tonnes of beef from other countries.
Industry groups have warned that the policy risks destabilizing the market. The Indonesian Meat Entrepreneurs and Processors Association (APPDI) said the drastic quota reduction could trigger market disruption and potential layoffs.
