Prabowo’s pardons: The start of Jokowi’s fall from grace

In a shocking twist to end the month, President Prabowo Subianto has decided to give legal clemency to both the secretary-general of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Hasto Kristiyanto, and former trade minister Thomas ‘Tom’ Trikasih Lembong for their respective graft convictions.

Hasto, who was sentenced to three and a half years in prison on July 25 following a lengthy legal process that began in December 2024, was originally found guilty of aiding fellow PDI-P politician Harun Masiku in bribing a General Elections Commission (KPU) official in 2019 to secure a vacancy at the House of Representatives (DPR).

He will have his conviction wiped clean through a political amnesty directive made by President Prabowo. Law Minister Supratman Andi Atgas stated that the order would not only absolve Hasto but also 1,116 other prisoners of their crimes, including unarmed treason convicts in Papua, the elderly, and the mentally ill.

Meanwhile Tom, who was given a four and a half year prison sentence for orchestrating a corrupt sugar import scheme a decade ago, will have his legal conviction ‘abolished’. This decision will essentially erase Tom’s legal process altogether. He is not just forgiven for his crime, abolition means the crime will be wiped away as if it never existed in the first place.

The semantic difference between amnesty and abolition might seem futile, but the political implications of the President’s pardons are certainly noteworthy.

Both decisions come at a time of heightened political tension regarding former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s enduring influence in Prabowo’s administration. One striking similarity between Hasto and Tom is their shared history as critics of the ex-president.

Tom stood behind Anies Baswedan, another Jokowi critic, as the former Jakarta governor’s campaign manager in the 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, Hasto, as the PDI-P's second-in-command, famously expelled Jokowi from the party after his rumored behind-the-scenes maneuvering that enabled his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to run in last year’s polls as Prabowo’s vice presidential pick.

Since Prabowo came into power in October of last year, observers from in and out of the government have noted that it would just be a matter of time until the president slips out from under his predecessor’s lingering grip on power. The time appears to be now.

In an act of political reconciliation, Prabowo’s acquittals, especially Hasto’s, extend beyond goodwill and appear rather as a compromise to mend relations between his administration and the PDI-P, the sole opposition party in his government.

Despite being the largest party in the House of Representatives, where it holds 110 seats out of 580 seats, the PDI-P's dissenting voice has been largely muted or merely normative since Prabowo took office. Even if the party sought to be a forceful opposition, however, its voice in the legislature would be largely ineffective against the President’s overwhelming coalition.

After the pardons were announced, PDI-P matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri was seen posted up with two of Prabowo’s closest aides in Deputy House Speaker Sufmi Dasco Ahmad and State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi in Bali, where the party is currently holding a ‘technical guidance’ workshop for thousands of its members, which was later converted into a national congress to re-elect Megawati as PDI chairwoman until 2030. “Weaving the bonds of nationhood and brotherhood,” wrote Dasco in his Instagram post on the gathering.

During the workshop, Megawati also formally announced the party’s motive to abandon its opposition status, amid longstanding speculation on the future of the party, and ordered all members to support the current administration. “Ibu [Megawati] emphasized that we [now] support the government,” said senior PDI-P politician Deddy Yevri Sitorus.

Previously, President Prabowo, who has a long-standing and complex relationship with Megawati, signaled a desire for rapprochement in April, when he made a point of visiting her residence to mend their tumultuous relationship.

Negotiations have been long, with the PDI-P continuously postponing its quinquennial congress since last year to buy time as it navigated the legal proceedings against Hasto. Following this compromise, all roads point to a consensus regarding the future of Jokowi in Prabowo’s administration.

The next few months will either see Jokowi and his faction continue to be crowded out or a significant shift in the balance of power to ensure that the PDI-P has a larger say in national decision-making, possibly securing its politicians’ ministerial posts in the event of a cabinet reshuffle.

With how Jokowi and his aides are treated in the country’s current political climate, both scenarios may as well be accomplished in unison. Vice President Gibran, who has been faced with mounting pressure for his impeachment, was tasked with an impossible mission to seek lasting peace in conflict-ridden Papua. Meanwhile, Jokowi’s son-in-law and North Sumatra Governor, Bobby Nasution, has had his name dragged into a regional graft scandal.

Jokowi himself had a hard time navigating his way to a new home after the PDI-P kicked him out. After failing to meddle in the PDI-P’s internal structure and with growing deterrence from the Golkar party, the former president was left to reside with the less-influential Indonesian Solidarity Party, with zero seats in the DPR for the entirety of Prabowo’s term.

Now, his two rivals have been given clemency and the party that kicked him out have made amends with the President he helped put into power a mere calendar year ago. A storm is coming, and Jokowi might just be in its way.