Thailand-Cambodia war: A pipe dream for ASEAN unity

ASEAN has come under heavy criticism for its failure to prevent war from erupting between Thailand and Cambodia, with a part of that blame leveled at Indonesia as the largest member of the regional group. The paralysis of ASEAN reveals the limits of diplomacy when it comes to resolving territorial disputes between members. Not surprisingly, Indonesia has not done much beyond appealing for restraint.

Current ASEAN chair Malaysia may have won plaudits on Monday for bringing the two sides to agree on a ceasefire after five days of fighting, with dozens of civilian deaths and tens of thousands displaced on both sides, but there are questions, not only about how long this will hold, but also more importantly perhaps, about the ability of the association to resolve the many border dispute. Other members have overlapping territorial claims similar to the one which triggered the Thailand-Cambodia war.

ASEAN actually has a dispute resolution mechanism, which includes assigning mediation to an ASEAN High Council, but this has not been used or tested, and in all likelihood, it is not designed to resolve territorial disputes between members.

The fact that neither party turned to ASEAN demonstrated their low trust in the organization. Thailand, militarily the more powerful of the two, wants to settle the dispute bilaterally. Cambodia turned to the International Court of Justice, which in the past has ruled in its favor, to rein in their rival.

The Thailand-Cambodian row is not the only game in town. Every member is still negotiating border delineations, both terrestrial and maritime, with almost all their neighboring countries. None are willing to give up an inch, meaning long and often painful negotiations. Unfortunately, one of these erupted into a full-scale war last week.

To its credit, ASEAN has been able to avert wars like this, ensuring peace and stability between its members in the last six decades or more, allowing the region to develop and prosper.

ASEAN however cannot sweep territorial disputes under the carpet forever. Sooner or later, some of these will erupt. When one does, as has just happened in July, it could unravel all the achievements the group has made in its 68-year history. The ASEAN community project, now targeting 2045, is also in jeopardy.

The Thailand-Cambodian war will further challenge ASEAN unity, already undermined by the civil war in Myanmar and simmering territorial disputes in the South China Sea involving some members and with China. ASEAN members also tried to outbid one another in their response to United States President Donald Trump’s tariff war.

Indonesia, which is heavily invested on ASEAN more than other members in terms of diplomatic resources, is now caught in a bind. The optimists say Jakarta can draw from the experience of its diplomatic success in ending the conflict in Cambodia in the 1990s. The pessimists say the Cambodian experience may be educational for solving in-country conflicts like what is happening in Myanmar, but not for wars over border between two members, an entirely different ball game.

At best, as Malaysia has done in its capacity as ASEAN chair, member states can broker a truce, but this does not resolve the root of the problem: overlapping territorial claims. This is beyond ASEAN’s remit.

ASEAN and Indonesia will just have to place their faith in diplomacy, if only to avert wars. The alternative, and historically more prevalent method of solving border disputes, is the use of military force, which will have ugly consequences for the entire region.