Sector

Energy

Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.

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Energy

Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.

Despite having a renewable energy potential estimated at around 3,000 gigawatts (GW), current utilization is merely about 12.74 GW or 3 percent. This renewable energy potential includes solar energy, which is widely spread across Indonesia, especially in East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, and Riau, with a potential of approximately 3,294 GW and utilization of 323 megawatts (MW). Another renewable energy, hydro energy, with a potential of 95 GW, is primarily found in North Kalimantan, Aceh, West Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Papua, with utilization reaching 6,738 MW.

Additionally, bioenergy, encompassing biofuel, biomass, and biogas, is distributed throughout Indonesia with a total potential of 57 GW and utilization of 3,118 MW. Wind energy (>6 m/s) found in East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, West Java, South Sulawesi, Aceh, and Papua has a substantial potential of 155 GW, with utilization of 154 MW.

Furthermore, geothermal energy, strategically located in the “Ring of Fire” region covering Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and Yogyakarta has a potential of 23 GW and utilization of 2,373 MW. Meanwhile, marine energy, with a potential of 63 GW, especially in Yogyakarta, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bali, remains untapped.

Among the renewable energy sources and their potential, these projects entail significant investments. According to the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) of the State Electricity Company (PLN), from 2021 to 2030, geothermal power plants require an investment of US$17.35 billion, large-scale solar power plants necessitate US$3.2 billion, hydropower plants require US$25.63 billion, and base renewable energy power plants require US$5.49 billion. Additionally, bioenergy power plants require an investment of US$2.2 billion, wind power plants US$1.03 billion, peaker power plants US$0.28 billion, and rooftop solar power plants IS$3 billion.

As of 2022, hydro and geothermal are the primary drivers of growth. Private entities had enhanced the capacity of hydro power by adding 603.66 MW in mini, micro, and standard hydro facilities, reaching a total of 2,459.72 MW. Meanwhile, the geothermal sector experienced a 412 MW increase over the last five years from the private sector, bringing the total capacity to 1,782.8 MW by 2022. Aside from these two renewable energy, sources solar energy has also presented significant opportunities, particularly given Indonesia's potential for floating solar systems on reservoirs and dams.

Furthermore, the country’s other national energy subsector of gas underscores Indonesia’s wealth in natural gas. Indonesia’s natural gas reserves are predominantly methane (80-95 percent), which can be used directly or processed into Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). However, demand has greatly increased over the past decade for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). From 2018 to 2022, domestic LPG production reached between 1.9 to 2 million tons, which is insufficient to meet national needs, leading to increasing imports that reached 6.74 million tons in 2022.

Currently, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is working to attract new investments for LPG refineries through a cluster-based business scheme for the construction or future development of new LPF refineries. The ministry has identified the potential of rich gas to produce an additional 1.2 million tons of LPG cylinders domestically.

Latest News

January 17, 2025

The Indonesian government is set to increase the palm oil-based content share in biodiesel from 35 percent (B35) to 40 percent (B40) starting in 2025. This move aligns with the nation’s renewable energy and carbon reduction targets while advancing the downstream development of its palm oil industry. However, the policy has sparked concerns over the environmental impact of palm oil cultivation and its potential to drive up cooking oil prices.

The B40 mandate will take effect on Jan. 1, 2025. According to the Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ministry, implementing the policy will require 15.62 million kiloliters of crude palm oil (CPO) in 2025. However, Indonesia's CPO production has declined, falling from 50.1 million tons in 2023 to 47.8 million tons in 2024, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki). Gapki also anticipates that B40 implementation could reduce CPO exports by 2 million tons. Meanwhile, the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia highlighted that 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations are unproductive, with only 10 percent having undergone revitalization.

Despite these challenges, the ESDM Ministry forecasts significant economic and environmental benefits from the B40 policy. It estimates a reduction in petroleum diesel imports worth Rp147.5 trillion (US$9.1 billion) in 2025, following a similar success with B35, which cut petroleum imports by Rp122.98 trillion in 2024. Additionally, the ministry predicts that B40 will boost CPO’s added value by Rp20.9 trillion, lower carbon emissions by 41.46 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq), and generate 1.95 million on-farm jobs and 14,730 off-farm jobs.

The Oil Palm Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS) projects that subsidies for B40 could amount to Rp46 trillion to Rp47 trillion in 2025. The agency expects to finance these subsidies from its funds, which include an estimated Rp24 trillion from CPO export duties, bringing its total budget to Rp53.5 trillion. However, the subsidy is restricted to biodiesel produced as part of CPO producers’ public service obligation due to the anticipated high price disparity between crude oil and CPO.

Gapki believes that the subsidies will be manageable if CPO exports reach 30 million tons in 2025. However, exports are projected to fall to 27 million tons in 2024 due to higher prices compared to other vegetable oils. In a bid to support the B40 policy, the government is considering raising the CPO export duty rate from the current 7.5 percent, stipulated under Finance Minister Regulation No. 62/2024, to 10 percent. While this could increase revenues for the B40 subsidy, it may also push up prices for CPO-derived products, including cooking oil, and reduce CPO’s competitiveness in international markets. CORE Indonesia has suggested that using alternative feedstocks, such as used cooking oil, could help meet the biodiesel demand. Indonesia produces 1.2 million kiloliters of used cooking oil annually, which has potential as a biodiesel mix.

The government must tread carefully with the B40 policy. Expanding oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand risks further compromising local biodiversity, while revitalizing unproductive plantations will require significant time and resources. Policymakers must also address the potential chaos in cooking oil markets, as seen in previous attempts to control prices. Strengthening plantation revitalization efforts and cracking down on cooking oil hoarding are essential to mitigate the unintended consequences of the B40 policy.

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