Sector
Energy
Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
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Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
Despite having a renewable energy potential estimated at around 3,000 gigawatts (GW), current utilization is merely about 12.74 GW or 3 percent. This renewable energy potential includes solar energy, which is widely spread across Indonesia, especially in East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, and Riau, with a potential of approximately 3,294 GW and utilization of 323 megawatts (MW). Another renewable energy, hydro energy, with a potential of 95 GW, is primarily found in North Kalimantan, Aceh, West Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Papua, with utilization reaching 6,738 MW.
Additionally, bioenergy, encompassing biofuel, biomass, and biogas, is distributed throughout Indonesia with a total potential of 57 GW and utilization of 3,118 MW. Wind energy (>6 m/s) found in East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, West Java, South Sulawesi, Aceh, and Papua has a substantial potential of 155 GW, with utilization of 154 MW.
Furthermore, geothermal energy, strategically located in the “Ring of Fire” region covering Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and Yogyakarta has a potential of 23 GW and utilization of 2,373 MW. Meanwhile, marine energy, with a potential of 63 GW, especially in Yogyakarta, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bali, remains untapped.
Among the renewable energy sources and their potential, these projects entail significant investments. According to the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) of the State Electricity Company (PLN), from 2021 to 2030, geothermal power plants require an investment of US$17.35 billion, large-scale solar power plants necessitate US$3.2 billion, hydropower plants require US$25.63 billion, and base renewable energy power plants require US$5.49 billion. Additionally, bioenergy power plants require an investment of US$2.2 billion, wind power plants US$1.03 billion, peaker power plants US$0.28 billion, and rooftop solar power plants IS$3 billion.
As of 2022, hydro and geothermal are the primary drivers of growth. Private entities had enhanced the capacity of hydro power by adding 603.66 MW in mini, micro, and standard hydro facilities, reaching a total of 2,459.72 MW. Meanwhile, the geothermal sector experienced a 412 MW increase over the last five years from the private sector, bringing the total capacity to 1,782.8 MW by 2022. Aside from these two renewable energy, sources solar energy has also presented significant opportunities, particularly given Indonesia's potential for floating solar systems on reservoirs and dams.
Furthermore, the country’s other national energy subsector of gas underscores Indonesia’s wealth in natural gas. Indonesia’s natural gas reserves are predominantly methane (80-95 percent), which can be used directly or processed into Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). However, demand has greatly increased over the past decade for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). From 2018 to 2022, domestic LPG production reached between 1.9 to 2 million tons, which is insufficient to meet national needs, leading to increasing imports that reached 6.74 million tons in 2022.
Currently, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is working to attract new investments for LPG refineries through a cluster-based business scheme for the construction or future development of new LPF refineries. The ministry has identified the potential of rich gas to produce an additional 1.2 million tons of LPG cylinders domestically.
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Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa's decision to reverse course on the placement of the budget surplus balance (SAL) warrants closer scrutiny. While the move may reflect policymakers' willingness to respond to changing market conditions, it also raises a more fundamental question: Does frequent policy recalibration strengthen confidence by demonstrating flexibility, or does it undermine the certainty that the financial system depends on?
The funds were never simply idle cash. Since September 2025, the Finance Ministry had gradually placed SAL in five state-owned banks to strengthen liquidity and sustain credit growth amid tightening financial conditions. By March 2026, the placement had reached Rp 376 trillion (US$21 billion). Three months later, however, the government began transferring part of the funds back to Bank Indonesia while also seeking to strengthen fiscal-monetary coordination in support of the rupiah. Yet the strategy quickly revealed its limits.
The reversal is particularly striking because it occurred at a time when Indonesia's banking sector appeared fundamentally sound. Credit growth accelerated to 11.5 percent year-on-year in May 2026, supported by strong deposit growth and ample system-wide liquidity, while Bank Indonesia remained confident that lending would continue expanding within its target range of 8 to 12 percent this year.
Yet aggregate indicators often conceal how individual institutions manage their funding. Over the previous year, SAL had evolved from a temporary fiscal placement into a stable source of liquidity for state-owned banks, becoming embedded in their funding and lending strategies. The longer the placement remained in place, the more difficult it became to unwind.
When the funds were withdrawn, the issue was not the resilience of Indonesia's banking system, but the adjustment required of banks that had come to rely on what was always intended to be a temporary arrangement. In that sense, the withdrawal did more than tighten liquidity. It exposed the gap between policy design and operational reality.
That dependence became apparent almost immediately. State-owned banks reportedly warned that funding conditions had tightened much faster than anticipated. Purbaya himself later acknowledged that once the funds were withdrawn, Himbara banks had "become dry" and had effectively run out of funding to support lending. Within days, Deputy Finance Minister Juda Agung announced that Rp 281 trillion would be returned to Himbara banks and that the placement would be extended through December, with an additional Rp 100 trillion held in reserve.
It is unusual for a finance minister to acknowledge the shortcomings of a policy so quickly. It is even rarer for those shortcomings to require an almost immediate policy reversal. Purbaya's remarks suggest that what had initially been presented as routine coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities had underestimated the extent to which the banking system had absorbed the government's liquidity injections.
More fundamentally, the government's handling of SAL raises broader questions about both fiscal discipline and institutional responsibilities. By design, SAL is an accumulated fiscal buffer, intended to provide flexibility during periods of economic stress rather than serve as a recurring policy instrument. Its growing use to support banking liquidity risks turning an emergency reserve into a substitute for more durable fiscal solutions, relying on accumulated surpluses rather than addressing the structural imbalance between government revenues and expenditures.
At the same time, the policy blurred the distinction between fiscal and monetary responsibilities. While the Finance Ministry is responsible for managing the government's cash position, maintaining system-wide liquidity is fundamentally the mandate of Bank Indonesia. Large fiscal cash movements will inevitably affect banking liquidity, but managing those effects should primarily rely on the central bank's monetary toolkit rather than repeated shifts in government deposits. The need to reverse the withdrawal within days suggests that the transition was not fully calibrated to the operational realities of the banking system.
The real lesson from the SAL reversal is not simply about the rupiah or bank liquidity. It is about policymaking itself. Good intentions are not enough if implementation is overlooked. Markets expect governments to make difficult decisions, but they also expect those decisions to be carefully thought through. In the end, successful economic policy is measured not only by where it aims to go, but also by whether it can get there without having to turn back.
