Sector
Energy
Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
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Energy
Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
Despite having a renewable energy potential estimated at around 3,000 gigawatts (GW), current utilization is merely about 12.74 GW or 3 percent. This renewable energy potential includes solar energy, which is widely spread across Indonesia, especially in East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, and Riau, with a potential of approximately 3,294 GW and utilization of 323 megawatts (MW). Another renewable energy, hydro energy, with a potential of 95 GW, is primarily found in North Kalimantan, Aceh, West Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Papua, with utilization reaching 6,738 MW.
Additionally, bioenergy, encompassing biofuel, biomass, and biogas, is distributed throughout Indonesia with a total potential of 57 GW and utilization of 3,118 MW. Wind energy (>6 m/s) found in East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, West Java, South Sulawesi, Aceh, and Papua has a substantial potential of 155 GW, with utilization of 154 MW.
Furthermore, geothermal energy, strategically located in the “Ring of Fire” region covering Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and Yogyakarta has a potential of 23 GW and utilization of 2,373 MW. Meanwhile, marine energy, with a potential of 63 GW, especially in Yogyakarta, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bali, remains untapped.
Among the renewable energy sources and their potential, these projects entail significant investments. According to the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) of the State Electricity Company (PLN), from 2021 to 2030, geothermal power plants require an investment of US$17.35 billion, large-scale solar power plants necessitate US$3.2 billion, hydropower plants require US$25.63 billion, and base renewable energy power plants require US$5.49 billion. Additionally, bioenergy power plants require an investment of US$2.2 billion, wind power plants US$1.03 billion, peaker power plants US$0.28 billion, and rooftop solar power plants IS$3 billion.
As of 2022, hydro and geothermal are the primary drivers of growth. Private entities had enhanced the capacity of hydro power by adding 603.66 MW in mini, micro, and standard hydro facilities, reaching a total of 2,459.72 MW. Meanwhile, the geothermal sector experienced a 412 MW increase over the last five years from the private sector, bringing the total capacity to 1,782.8 MW by 2022. Aside from these two renewable energy, sources solar energy has also presented significant opportunities, particularly given Indonesia's potential for floating solar systems on reservoirs and dams.
Furthermore, the country’s other national energy subsector of gas underscores Indonesia’s wealth in natural gas. Indonesia’s natural gas reserves are predominantly methane (80-95 percent), which can be used directly or processed into Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). However, demand has greatly increased over the past decade for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). From 2018 to 2022, domestic LPG production reached between 1.9 to 2 million tons, which is insufficient to meet national needs, leading to increasing imports that reached 6.74 million tons in 2022.
Currently, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is working to attract new investments for LPG refineries through a cluster-based business scheme for the construction or future development of new LPF refineries. The ministry has identified the potential of rich gas to produce an additional 1.2 million tons of LPG cylinders domestically.
Latest News
President Prabowo Subianto ’s administration has begun feeling the pressure of the global energy crisis, with state-owned energy company Pertamina raising prices for several unsubsidized fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) products. The move appears necessary to protect fiscal stability and Pertamina’s operations amid supply disruptions caused by the United States-Israeli war on Iran.
The US-Iran conflict has driven a sharp increase in global crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose from $67.02 per barrel on Feb. 27 to $112.95 per barrel on April 7. Both benchmarks declined following a ceasefire on April 8, with Brent and WTI falling to $94.75 and $94.41 per barrel, respectively. Meanwhile, according to the Energy and Mineral Resource (ESDM) Ministry, the Indonesia Crude Price (ICP) surged from US$68.79 per barrel in February to $102.26 per barrel in March, reflecting movements in global crude futures. From a pre-war level of $72.48 per barrel on Feb. 27, Brent Crude futures climbed to $118.35 per barrel on March 31.
Accordingly, PT Pertamina Patra Niaga, a subsidiary of state-owned energy company Pertamina, announced on April 18 that it would adjust prices for Pertamax Turbo, Pertamina’s research octane number (RON) 98 gasoline, as well as Dex and Dexlite, Pertamina’s cetane number (CN) 53 and CN 51 diesel products. The price of Pertamax Turbo increased from Rp 13,100 (US 76 cents) per liter to Rp 19,400 per liter. Dex rose from Rp 14,500 per liter to Rp 23,900 per liter, while Dexlite increased from Rp 14,200 per liter to Rp 23,600 per liter.
Pertamina Patra Niaga also raised prices for unsubsidized 12-kilogram LPG cylinders in Java, Bali and West Nusa Tenggara from Rp 192,000 to Rp 228,000 per cylinder, marking the first increase since 2023. Meanwhile, prices for unsubsidized 5.5-kg LPG cylinders in the same regions rose from Rp 90,000 to Rp 107,000 per cylinder. Prices in other regions will be adjusted based on distribution costs.
The ESDM Ministry reiterated the government’s commitment to maintain subsidized fuel prices until the end of 2026. However, it also acknowledged that a second phase of price hikes for other unsubsidized fuel and gas products may be necessary if crude prices remain elevated.
The Finance Ministry stated that maintaining fuel subsidies remains possible through budget reallocations from ministries and agencies, as well as the projected 2.9 percent fiscal deficit. The ministry also noted that the government has Rp 490 trillion in excess budget balances from the previous fiscal year that could serve as a buffer. According to its calculations, these reallocations would be sufficient to sustain fuel subsidies if crude prices average around US$100 per barrel in 2026.
However, that assumption remains risky. The 2026 state budget is based on an average crude oil price of just $70 per barrel, while state-owned Bank Mandiri estimates that every $1 increase in crude prices would add roughly Rp 10.3 trillion in energy subsidy and compensation costs. By comparison, every $1 increase in crude prices would generate only Rp 3.5 trillion in additional tax and royalty revenues. The government’s reluctance to raise subsidized fuel prices also reflects inflation concerns. For instance, every Rp 1 increase in the price of subsidized RON 90 Pertalite could raise inflation by 0.27 percentage points.
Pertamina’s decision to raise prices for selected unsubsidized fuel products appears unavoidable given the pressure on downstream operations. However, if the company is forced to raise prices across all unsubsidized products, inflationary pressure could intensify while increasing the fiscal burden as consumers shift to subsidized alternatives. With no clear end to the US-Iran standoff, broader fuel price hikes may ultimately become unavoidable.
