Sector
Energy
Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
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Energy
Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
Despite having a renewable energy potential estimated at around 3,000 gigawatts (GW), current utilization is merely about 12.74 GW or 3 percent. This renewable energy potential includes solar energy, which is widely spread across Indonesia, especially in East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, and Riau, with a potential of approximately 3,294 GW and utilization of 323 megawatts (MW). Another renewable energy, hydro energy, with a potential of 95 GW, is primarily found in North Kalimantan, Aceh, West Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Papua, with utilization reaching 6,738 MW.
Additionally, bioenergy, encompassing biofuel, biomass, and biogas, is distributed throughout Indonesia with a total potential of 57 GW and utilization of 3,118 MW. Wind energy (>6 m/s) found in East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, West Java, South Sulawesi, Aceh, and Papua has a substantial potential of 155 GW, with utilization of 154 MW.
Furthermore, geothermal energy, strategically located in the “Ring of Fire” region covering Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and Yogyakarta has a potential of 23 GW and utilization of 2,373 MW. Meanwhile, marine energy, with a potential of 63 GW, especially in Yogyakarta, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bali, remains untapped.
Among the renewable energy sources and their potential, these projects entail significant investments. According to the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) of the State Electricity Company (PLN), from 2021 to 2030, geothermal power plants require an investment of US$17.35 billion, large-scale solar power plants necessitate US$3.2 billion, hydropower plants require US$25.63 billion, and base renewable energy power plants require US$5.49 billion. Additionally, bioenergy power plants require an investment of US$2.2 billion, wind power plants US$1.03 billion, peaker power plants US$0.28 billion, and rooftop solar power plants IS$3 billion.
As of 2022, hydro and geothermal are the primary drivers of growth. Private entities had enhanced the capacity of hydro power by adding 603.66 MW in mini, micro, and standard hydro facilities, reaching a total of 2,459.72 MW. Meanwhile, the geothermal sector experienced a 412 MW increase over the last five years from the private sector, bringing the total capacity to 1,782.8 MW by 2022. Aside from these two renewable energy, sources solar energy has also presented significant opportunities, particularly given Indonesia's potential for floating solar systems on reservoirs and dams.
Furthermore, the country’s other national energy subsector of gas underscores Indonesia’s wealth in natural gas. Indonesia’s natural gas reserves are predominantly methane (80-95 percent), which can be used directly or processed into Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). However, demand has greatly increased over the past decade for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). From 2018 to 2022, domestic LPG production reached between 1.9 to 2 million tons, which is insufficient to meet national needs, leading to increasing imports that reached 6.74 million tons in 2022.
Currently, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is working to attract new investments for LPG refineries through a cluster-based business scheme for the construction or future development of new LPF refineries. The ministry has identified the potential of rich gas to produce an additional 1.2 million tons of LPG cylinders domestically.
Latest News
PT Nations Petroleum, an oil and gas company linked to businessman Hashim Djojohadikusumo, President Prabowo Subianto ’s younger brother and special climate and energy envoy, has committed US$103.3 million to three years of work on the Natuna D-Alpha block, prompting questions over why the relatively new player is willing to take on such an ambitious bet.
One of Indonesia’s largest undeveloped gas resources that has eluded development for decades, the block presents formidable technical and commercial challenges, including gas containing more than 70 percent carbon dioxide (CO2).
The scale of Nations Petroleum’s commitment is striking, not only because of the block’s complexity but also because the company lacks the track record of the major international oil companies that have previously sought to develop it.
Industry players describe Nations Petroleum as a new and unproven player that would likely need a major international partner to provide the technology and financing required to develop D-Alpha. This raises questions about the company’s financial and technical capacity to take on the block, as well as speculation over why it is willing to commit so much to a project that has defeated previous development attempts.
The block’s history dates back to 1980, when Pertamina and ExxonMobil subsidiary Esso Natuna signed a production sharing contract (PSC). Pertamina and Esso Natuna initially held equal 50 percent shares but in 1996, Pertamina transferred a 26 percent interest to ExxonMobil’s Mobil Natuna, leaving the United States major with a 76 percent stake and Pertamina with 24 percent.
The contract was eventually terminated after the contractor failed to submit a feasibility study demonstrating D-Alpha’s commercial viability per the agreed deadline.
The government handed responsibility for the block to Pertamina in 2008, seeking to revive its development with international partners. In 2010, Pertamina formed a consortium with ExxonMobil, France’s Total and Malaysia’s Petronas.
Petronas was replaced by Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) in 2012 and then Total subsequently withdrew, leaving behind a trio. By 2017 ExxonMobil and PTTEP had also withdrawn, bringing the consortium to an end and leaving Pertamina as the sole party.
The contrast with Nations Petroleum is considerable: ExxonMobil, Total, Petronas and PTTEP were all established international energy companies with extensive upstream operations and experience in technically challenging projects, yet they were unable to develop D-Alpha for commercial production.
The entity with the closest relevant experience within Hashim’s Arsari Group is PT Nations Natuna Barat, which is acquiring a 75 percent non-operated working interest in the Duyung PSC, which is developing the Mako gas field in the West Natuna basic. But that experience is both indirect and considerably smaller in scale than what D-Alpha requires.
The scope of the challenge also helps explain another view among industry players: that Nations Petroleum’s role in the block could primarily be as a source of capital rather than as the lead in its development. This has in turn fueled questions about the company’s ability to develop the block without a major international partner.
Hashim’s blood ties to Prabowo and his standing as a longtime political ally has added another layer of scrutiny, leading to speculation that political considerations may have played a role in awarding the block to Nations Petroleum.
Nevertheless, Pertamina cannot be expected to develop Natuna D-Alpha alone. The block presents an unusually difficult development proposition, while Indonesia has a strong interest in bringing its large undeveloped gas resources into production as domestic energy demand rises and oil and gas output remains under pressure.
Increasing domestic production is also an important part of the government’s broader energy security agenda, making D-Alpha strategically important despite the challenges involved.
The scale of the potential development is reflected in a 2010 estimate from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry pointing to a required investment of around $52 billion. This estimate, released before the doomed four-way consortium attempted to advance the project, indicates the formidable technical and commercial challenges involved, including the field’s roughly 70 percent CO2 content.
For now, Nations Petroleum’s involvement remains focused on exploration and early-stage appraisal. The company will conduct geological and geophysical surveys and process 3D seismic data covering 591 square kilometers of the Natuna D-Alpha block. It will then carry out additional exploration studies, including drilling an appraisal well and an exploration well.
The results of this preliminary work will help determine whether Nations Petroleum can develop D-Alpha beyond the cycle of failed attempts that has defined the block for decades.
