Sector
Energy
Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
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Indonesia possesses vast, distributed, and diverse energy resources. The country’s energy subsectors include gas, clean water, and electricity, with demand projected to increase to 464 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2024 and further increase to 1,885 TWh by 2060. The use of renewable energy is a top priority and the government has set ambitious goals in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) and General Planning for National Electricity (RKUN) to integrate 23 percent renewable energy into the national energy mix by 2025. At least US$41.8 billion of investments are needed to fully realize the goal.
Despite having a renewable energy potential estimated at around 3,000 gigawatts (GW), current utilization is merely about 12.74 GW or 3 percent. This renewable energy potential includes solar energy, which is widely spread across Indonesia, especially in East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, and Riau, with a potential of approximately 3,294 GW and utilization of 323 megawatts (MW). Another renewable energy, hydro energy, with a potential of 95 GW, is primarily found in North Kalimantan, Aceh, West Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Papua, with utilization reaching 6,738 MW.
Additionally, bioenergy, encompassing biofuel, biomass, and biogas, is distributed throughout Indonesia with a total potential of 57 GW and utilization of 3,118 MW. Wind energy (>6 m/s) found in East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, West Java, South Sulawesi, Aceh, and Papua has a substantial potential of 155 GW, with utilization of 154 MW.
Furthermore, geothermal energy, strategically located in the “Ring of Fire” region covering Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and Yogyakarta has a potential of 23 GW and utilization of 2,373 MW. Meanwhile, marine energy, with a potential of 63 GW, especially in Yogyakarta, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bali, remains untapped.
Among the renewable energy sources and their potential, these projects entail significant investments. According to the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) of the State Electricity Company (PLN), from 2021 to 2030, geothermal power plants require an investment of US$17.35 billion, large-scale solar power plants necessitate US$3.2 billion, hydropower plants require US$25.63 billion, and base renewable energy power plants require US$5.49 billion. Additionally, bioenergy power plants require an investment of US$2.2 billion, wind power plants US$1.03 billion, peaker power plants US$0.28 billion, and rooftop solar power plants IS$3 billion.
As of 2022, hydro and geothermal are the primary drivers of growth. Private entities had enhanced the capacity of hydro power by adding 603.66 MW in mini, micro, and standard hydro facilities, reaching a total of 2,459.72 MW. Meanwhile, the geothermal sector experienced a 412 MW increase over the last five years from the private sector, bringing the total capacity to 1,782.8 MW by 2022. Aside from these two renewable energy, sources solar energy has also presented significant opportunities, particularly given Indonesia's potential for floating solar systems on reservoirs and dams.
Furthermore, the country’s other national energy subsector of gas underscores Indonesia’s wealth in natural gas. Indonesia’s natural gas reserves are predominantly methane (80-95 percent), which can be used directly or processed into Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). However, demand has greatly increased over the past decade for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). From 2018 to 2022, domestic LPG production reached between 1.9 to 2 million tons, which is insufficient to meet national needs, leading to increasing imports that reached 6.74 million tons in 2022.
Currently, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is working to attract new investments for LPG refineries through a cluster-based business scheme for the construction or future development of new LPF refineries. The ministry has identified the potential of rich gas to produce an additional 1.2 million tons of LPG cylinders domestically.
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Bank Indonesia (BI) opted to keep monetary policy supportive of growth on Sept. 23, holding its benchmark rate at 5.75 percent despite the United States Federal Reserve’s rate hike a week earlier. The decision, Governor Destry Damayanti’s second consecutive hold, reflects BI’s expanded mandate to support economic growth and job creation. Rather than raising rates to defend the rupiah, BI strengthened incentives for investors to hedge their currency exposure, seeking to balance growth with exchange-rate stability.
The Fed raised its target range for the first time since 2023, to 3.75-4.00 percent on Sept. 16, in a unanimous decision, as inflation remained elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty. Fed officials’ projections also indicated that monetary policy could remain relatively tight, while BI noted that global investor appetite for emerging-market portfolio assets remained constrained as the dollar stayed strong.
Ahead of BI’s decision, the rupiah weakened to Rp 17,855 per US dollar on Sept. 22, from around Rp 17,600 in mid-September. Foreign portfolio money has also been leaving: BI reported cumulative third-quarter net inflows of US$1.8 billion as of Aug. 14, falling to US$0.4 billion as of Sept. 21, implying roughly US$1.4 billion in net outflows over the five weeks between. Inflation, meanwhile, provided little pressure for a rate move. Headline inflation stood at 3.19 percent in August, driven by volatile food prices and up from July, but remained within BI’s target range of 2.5 percent plus/minus 1 percent.
In responding to the Fed’s decision, BI once again relied on instruments other than its policy rate. Its September response rested on three measures.
First, BI strengthened its monetary operations to stabilize the rupiah, control inflation and manage liquidity by optimizing foreign exchange intervention in offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDF), the domestic spot market and domestic NDF (DNDF), while managing money-market rates in line with the BI Rate. Second, it increased incentives through lower premiums on hedging swaps and DNDF transactions with BI, with reductions roughly doubled and tiered by tenor, alongside continued incentives for local-currency transactions. Third, it maintained accommodative macroprudential policy to encourage lending to the real sector.
Since June, when the rupiah breached Rp 18,000 per dollar and BI raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, completing three increases totalling 100 basis points, the central bank has kept rates unchanged. Its other policy instruments have since been used to defend the rupiah without further raising the cost of credit.
Raising the BI Rate would increase bank funding costs, feed through into lending rates and potentially slow investment and economic growth. That trade-off now has greater statutory significance following the enactment of Law No. 4/2026 on the Amendment to the Financial Sector Development and Strengthening (P2SK) Law.
The revised law gives BI additional responsibilities alongside its traditional objectives of maintaining the stability of the rupiah, payment system and financial system. Law No. 4/2026 requires BI to implement its policies and policy mix in a way that creates an economic environment conducive to real-sector growth and job creation. This expanded responsibility has been reflected in BI’s decision to hold rates in recent months while relying more heavily on other instruments to maintain stability.
Bank credit grew 13.65 percent year-on-year in August, up from 13.58 percent in July and above BI’s projected 8-12 percent range for the year. Investment loans expanded particularly strongly, by 25.11 percent, compared with 5.07 percent growth in consumer loans.
However, the revised law asks BI to help create conditions conducive not merely to credit growth but also to real-sector expansion and job creation. Whether the rapid growth in investment lending ultimately translates into stronger household incomes and, particularly, more jobs is something the credit data alone cannot answer.
What is reaching households, on BI’s own account, has come partly through government spending rather than bank lending. BI has attributed stronger household consumption in part to government stimulus. It also pointed to fiscal measures, including the 13th-month salary payment and spending on the free nutritious meals program, as factors supporting economic growth.
BI’s decision to hold rates, combined with its broader policy mix, has so far allowed it to pursue both stability and growth. Inflation remains within target, while the rupiah has been managed, albeit at a weaker level, and credit growth remains strong. BI itself described the Sept. 23 decision as consistent with rupiah stabilization, its inflation target and support for sustainable economic growth.
But those objectives may not always align so comfortably. When the rupiah comes under severe pressure, as it has over the past year, raising interest rates remains one of BI’s most powerful tools for supporting the currency, but it can also raise borrowing costs and restrain credit and investment. The revised P2SK Law gives BI a greater role in supporting growth. So far, its broader policy toolkit has allowed it to pursue that objective without sacrificing stability. The harder test will come if defending the rupiah and supporting growth begin to pull monetary policy in opposite directions.
