Uncertainty continues to surround Indonesia’s latest trade breakthrough as President Prabowo Subianto and United States President Donald Trump prepare to formalize the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Thursday, following their attendance at the first US-led Board of Peace meeting a day earlier. The framework unveiled in July 2025 sets a 19 percent tariff on Indonesian exports to the US market, a rate the Indonesian government portrays as a major diplomatic victory despite its magnitude. Yet it remains unclear whether the July framework represents the final terms to be signed or whether negotiations are still unfolding behind closed doors.

Following the resignation of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) chairman and deputy chairman, the government has formed a selection committee to seek the best candidates to lead the OJK and restore investor confidence after market turmoil triggered by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)’s interim freeze of its February review of Indonesian stocks. The pressing question is whether any candidate will be capable of rebuilding market trust.

Once synonymous with controversy and stagnation, Meikarta has resurfaced on Indonesia’s national housing agenda. The government plans to repurpose the site for subsidized vertical housing for low-income households, with around 30 hectares (ha) of Lippo Group-owned land reportedly provided “for free”. The arrangement raises broader questions about transparency and whose interests the policy ultimately serves.

Several companies have come under scrutiny following global index provider MSCI’s decision to temporarily freeze Indonesia’s February review, citing concerns over market accessibility and transparency. In response to the announcement, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have stepped up due diligence and trading surveillance to address potential vulnerabilities. As this closer monitoring unfolds, it has brought renewed attention to sharp and unexplained price movements in several counters, most notably PT Sanurhasta Mitra (MINA), which had previously been flagged for unusual market activity.

On many occasions, President Prabowo Subianto has publicly stated that he welcomes criticism of his administration, emphasizing that governments require critical feedback, even when it is uncomfortable. Yet the situation on the ground suggests a paradoxical reality: criticism may be welcomed in rhetoric, but its public expression appears increasingly constrained.

While Indonesia has a multiparty democracy, the General Elections Law limits the number of political parties that can serve in the House of Representatives through an electoral threshold, which sets the minimum number of votes a party must win to gain a seat in the House of Representatives. In the 2024 general election, eight of the 18 contesting political parties met this threshold, one party fewer than the previous polls.

Indonesia’s economy grew 5.11 percent in 2025, slightly higher than 5.03 percent in 2024, but still below the government’s 5.2 percent target. Though the figure signaled resilience, it was quickly overshadowed by Moody’s decision to revise its outlook for Indonesia from stable to negative, citing governance concerns and policy uncertainty. The revision has renewed questions about the ambition of President Prabowo Subianto ’s administration to reach 8 percent amid the country’s longer-term goal of becoming an advanced economy.