New movement shyly offers political vehicle for Anies for 2029

Volunteers who campaigned for Anies Baswedan in the 2024 presidential election have launched Gerakan Rakyat (People’s Movement) potentially offering a political vehicle for the popular but also controversial former Jakarta governor, should he decide to run in 2029. Still only 55 years old and very ambitious, it is almost certain that he will throw down the gauntlet.

Anies, who came in a distant second to the eventual winner Prabowo Subianto last year, has one major drawback in contesting any elections in Indonesia: He does not control a political party, making him vulnerable to the whims of the political parties that give him the ticket.

Anies attended the Feb. 27 ceremony launching the movement in Jakarta, donning their orange jacket. When asked whether the movement would be turned into his political party before 2029, he responded: “That’s too far”.

Sahrin Ahmad, the movement’s chair, described Anies as the “inspirator” for the social change that the movement is campaigning for, adapting the theme the losing candidate used in last year’s presidential election campaign.

Although Rakyat is not a political party, it is already structured as one, with a central executive board and many regional chapters. It almost certainly meets the loose criteria of a political party set by the Home Ministry. The General Elections Commission could set additional stricter criteria before it can contest the election in 2029. So far, yet so near.

In the presidential race last year, Anies was supported by three political parties. Whether he could have controlled them if he had won is an academic question. Anies learned the bitter pill of not controlling a political party when the same three parties, namely the Nasdem party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and the National Awakening Party (PKB), pulled the rug out from under him at the last minute in his bid for the Jakarta gubernatorial election in November.

All surveys for the Jakarta election showed Anies as the most popular public figure by a long shot for the governor, which is a job he held from 2017-2022. He would have been a certain winner, but the three parties were wooed away to join a super coalition that Prabowo had put together to field his choice of candidate, in return for seats in his expanded cabinet.

The irony is that Prabowo’s candidate, Ridwan Kamil, lost the election to Pramono Anung of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). However, it was perhaps not an altogether shocking irony considering that many voters who would have voted for Anies were so disappointed by the about-face that they voted against their own parties’ endorsed candidate.

Now these parties stand to lose more if the movement draws support from people disgruntled by their parties’ choices of candidates in the national and regional elections.

A party may be all Anies needs to be able to run in 2029 after the Constitutional Court in January eliminated the high threshold for parties to nominate a presidential candidate. This clause forced political parties to form alliances to meet the threshold, reducing the presidential races to two or three candidates at most. The Court later found this unconstitutional, and it was struck down.

Besides Anies, another likely candidate for 2029 is 73-year-old President Prabowo, who said last week that he would forfeit the race if he disappointed the people.

Other likely candidates are Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo; Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and now serving in Prabowo’s cabinet as coordinating infrastructure and regional development minister; and Puan Maharani, the daughter of former president Megawati Sukarnoputri who is now serving as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Prabowo chairs the Gerindra Party, Gibran’s father controls Golkar, Agus is chair of the Democratic Party and Puan’s mother chairs the PDI-P. Anies is now almost assured of one party to level the playing field.

And with the barrier to entry lowered following the Court’s ruling, we may see all five and more contesting the election in 2029.