Prabowo consolidates control over big tent coalition

In the aftermath of the massive August anti-government riots, President Prabowo Subianto carried out two rounds of Cabinet reshuffles to consolidate power and control over his big-tent coalition government. The turmoil, which he described as bordering on treason, is the most serious challenge to his power since he took office in October last year.

Prabowo did not explain or provide evidence to support his claim of a hidden regime-change agenda, but the way he responded, including making changes to his Cabinet and giving more power to the Indonesian Military (TNI), shows the need for the former Army general to put his house in order and exert more control over his own government.

His coalition comprises not only seven of the eight political parties represented in the House of Representatives, which together control more than 80 percent of the seats, but also special interest groups, including the Indonesian Military (TNI), the National Police (Polri), and business and Islamic groups.

Another faction in the Cabinet that has no name but is recognized as the most important and powerful one is that of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the man Prabowo replaced in October 2024. Jokowi retains some control and influence through his son Gibran Rakabumining Raka, who is the vice president, and 16 of his ministers who were reappointed to Prabowo’s expansive Cabinet, which now comprises more than 100 ministers and vice ministers.

Five of the ministers replaced by Prabowo are carry-overs from the Jokowi administration.

Top of the list is Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Budi Gunawan, a retired police general who served as Jokowi’s chief of the State Intelligence Agency in 2019-2024. Budi, however, is seen more as a loyalist of Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chair of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the only party in the House that is staying out of the coalition government, although it does not play the role of opposition either.

As the top minister in charge of security, Budi was conspicuously absent from all public appearances throughout the week of political turmoil. His position was given to 76-year-old Djamari Chaniago, a retired Army general.

The four other legacy hires from Jokowi’s presidency recently removed were Sri Mulyani Indrawati (finance), Budi Arie Setiadi (Cooperatives) and Dito Ariotedjo (Sports), while Eric Thohir was demoted to sports minister from the more strategic and lucrative portfolio of state enterprises.

Other changes, including one minister and several vice ministers, affected the standing of some of the political parties, but they are inconsequential compared to the Jokowi faction in the ongoing power contests within the government.

While the constitution gives the President full prerogative to name his ministers, Prabowo knows the limits of his power and the need to constantly nurture the support of different factions within the government, even as he increases his power over them. He has to have a strategy in order not to destabilize the government.

One official he has not been able to change is National Police Chief Gen. Listyo Sigit Prabowo, another Jokowi legacy hire, despite the recent turmoil, which was partly, if not largely, blamed on the police’s incompetence in handling protests.

The protests turned into riots after a protester was killed, run over by a speeding police tactical vehicle on the night of Aug. 28. That event was live-streamed, and the unedited video went viral on social media, leading to public outrage and more violent protests, including looting, in the next few days. It was not until Prabowo gave the TNI the green light to intervene that public order was restored.

As part of the Cabinet reshuffle, Prabowo has also appointed Ahmad Dofiri, a retired police commissioner general, to advise him on reforming Polri. He is expected to lead a new presidential commission to reform the police, which has become one of the main demands of the protesters.

Listyo’s position is clearly on the line when the committee begins to work. And if he goes, it will further weaken Jokowi’s influence and provide more leverage to Prabowo.

When Prabowo came to office in October 2024, the name of the game was to embrace as many parties and factions as possible into his coalition government. To accommodate them, he expanded the size of the Cabinet from 40 to more than 100 so that he could parcel out seats as rewards for support and loyalty from all the factions.

Today, the name of the game is for the President to consolidate his power.