Mass protests fuel Prabowo’s conspiratorial narrative

As nationwide protests have subsided, a new power struggle has emerged among Indonesia's political elite, centering on who was behind the widespread unrest last week.

During his Aug. 31 state address, President Prabowo Subianto, flanked by leaders of all political parties seated in the House of Representatives, sought to de-escalate tensions by revoking the controversial housing allowance and overseas trips for lawmakers, the initial trigger for the week-long demonstrations. He also urged House members to adopt a humbler attitude after their perceived arrogance had failed to calm the public.

However, Prabowo’s speech was criticized for lacking clear accountability for the brutal state violence committed by the National Police. Instead of addressing the crackdowns, he doubled down, warning citizens not to fall prey to "figures" who seek to "divide and conquer" the nation, using incendiary terms like "treason" and "terrorism."

Immediately following his address, several of Prabowo's ministers insinuated that oil tycoon Muhammad Riza Chalid was the mastermind behind the protests. Coordinating Food Minister Zulfiki Hasan, also chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), reposted a text on Instagram accusing a "predecessor" of colluding with Riza Chalid to "steal the nation's wealth." The post was deleted hours later. Migrant Workers Protection Minister Abdul Kadir Karding of the National Awakening Party posted the same text, adding his own messages of support, and has kept it on his account.

Other figures known to have consistently supported Prabowo since the 2014 election such as Said Didu also linked Riza with former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Said recalled Riza attended the wedding reception of Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka in Surakarta, Central Java, in June 2015 as an honored guest, despite his alleged connection with corruption in the country’s oil industry that then-president Jokowi had pledged to fight.

Since the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) named Riza a suspect in a Rp 285 trillion (US$17.4 billion) graft case in July, the "oil godfather" has fled the country to evade justice. He was initially reported to be in Singapore before settling in Malaysia. As of Aug. 19, the AGO has declared him a fugitive.

While the conspiracy theory of Riza's revenge-fueled motive is appealing to the presidential circle, others have pointed to foreign influences. A common scapegoat for the Prabowo administration is a "foreign agent" seeking to fracture Indonesia. George Soros, the billionaire founder of the Open Society Foundation (OSF), is often cited. The OSF, a global network that champions human rights and democracy, has provided funding to several Indonesian entities, including critical media outlets like Tempo and Project Multatuli and civil society groups such as the Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation.

However, the likelihood of these institutions mobilizing protests on such a scale remains far-fetched. The demonstrations gained initial momentum largely through the social media platform TikTok. The trending hashtag #bubarkanDPR (abolish the House) spread through anonymous accounts, leading some activists to question if the initial Aug. 25 demonstration was manufactured. A comment by NasDem Party legislator Ahmad Sahroni, who called the protestors "stupid," further fueled public anger.

On Aug. 28, labor unions led by Labor Party chairman Said Iqbal became the driving force of the protests, with more structured demands, including the abolition of outsourcing and mass layoffs. However, Said’s personal allegiance to President Prabowo raised questions about the group’s true motives.

Further adding to the intrigue, Vice President Gibran was notably absent from Prabowo’s state address, sparking rumors that implicated him and his father, Jokowi, in the conspiracy. It turned out that when Prabowo gathered political party leaders at the Presidential Palace, Gibran invited a number of online motorcycle taxi drivers for a discussion at the Vice Presidential Palace, apparently in response to the death of motorcycle taxi driver Affan Kurniawan at the hands of the police during the Aug. 29 demonstration.

As the political elite trade accusations, their power struggle has contributed to the loss of at least 10 innocent lives in the ensuing violence. If Prabowo and his administration continue to point fingers instead of addressing legitimate demands for institutional reform of the police and the House, conspiracy theories will continue to blur the facts.

Such is the pattern that has helped governments avoid responsibility whenever mass protests turned violent in the past.