Gibran’s assignment a surreptitious way to show him the door

Nine months into his job, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka has finally been given a specific assignment: Oversee the acceleration of development in Papua, Indonesia’s easternmost region that is both resource-rich and among the most impoverished.

It is also the site of escalating tension between the Indonesian Military (TNI) and armed separatist groups.

No president has been able to tackle Papua’s complex development challenges since 1969, when the region formally became a part of Indonesia. This raises serious doubts as to whether the 37-year-old Vice President, who has limited government experience, can make any significant contribution.

It has also sparked speculation that this assignment could be a strategic maneuver by President Prabowo Subianto to deal with his deputy amid their strained relationship.

Constitutionally, a vice president is the second in command, but their responsibilities are determined solely at a president’s discretion. Prabowo, who turns 74 this year, has assigned a tough job for which Gibran is hardly equipped.

The Vice President’s new assignment was announced by Coordinating Law, Human Rights, Immigration and Correctional Services Minister Yusril Mahendra last week, while Prabowo was on an overseas tour.

Officials have pointed out that the 2021 Papua Special Autonomy Law actually mandates a vice president to “synchronize, harmonize, evaluate and coordinate” accelerated development of the region.

In 2022, then-president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo set up a special body to help the vice president fulfill this mandate. Not much progress has been made since then, though if anything, the situation on the ground has only gotten worse.

Early speculation that Gibran would work out of an office in Papua was dashed when Yusril explained that the Vice President could attend to his duties from Jakarta. The job still requires frequent visits to the region, which entails a flight of more than five hours from the capital per trip.

Gibran has publicly accepted the assignment and said he was prepared to work from anywhere.

He will likely get plenty of tips and support from his father Jokowi, who made Papua a particular focus of his two-term presidency in 2014-2024. However, his administration also saw more armed clashes between TNI and separatist forces that consequently led to increased militarization in the region, undermining any development progress in the past 10 years.

Occupying the western part of New Guinea alongside neighboring country Papua New Guinea to the east, Papua has both geopolitical and geo-economic values for Indonesia and is home to two of the largest foreign mining companies: Freeport, which is extracting gold, and BP, which is exploiting natural gas.

Separatist sentiment has been growing in the region for decades, some expressed through guerilla warfare from jungle hideouts, but also through student-led demonstrations. The TNI has also been accused of a series of human rights violations in Papua.

Despite his assignment from the President, it is unlikely that Gibran will be able to do much, now that the military is virtually running the entire region. This raises questions about the real motive behind Prabowo’s decision to give his vice president the job.

Gibran has made very few public appearances since taking office, and when he does, it is mostly for low-key ceremonial events. It therefore appears as though he has been deliberately left out of running the government loop by Prabowo.

Following their sweeping victory in the February 2024 election, Prabowo and Gibran’s relationship began to sour weeks before their inauguration on Oct. 20 after allegations emerged that Gibran had made personal attacks against Prabowo on social media many years prior.

During a recent meeting at the State Palace, Prabowo told a group of former military officers, many of who were his peers during his Army years, that they should approach the People’s Consultative Assembly over their call to impeach Gibran. The House of Representatives has confirmed receipt of the group’s petition for impeachment, but has yet to issue a response.

Gibran has now received an assignment he cannot refuse but one he is almost certain to fail.

If Gibran succeeds in his Papua assignment, he could boost both his reputation and chances of running for president in 2029. But if he fails, which is more likely, this could further discredit him in the public eye and put an end to his presidential ambitions.

Regardless, since Prabowo has not ruled out the possibility of running for a second term in spite of his age, the two may have to part ways long before the next election.